Tts Newsletter #2
Filed under: Recreation and Sports
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WELCOME & CONTENTS
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Hello, and welcome to your fortnightly newsletter from the
offices of TrainerTrackStats.
In this issue:
- Review of last newsletter
- System angle: Going Change Winners
- A joke…
- Tomorrow’s qualifiers
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REVIEW OF LAST NEWSLETTER
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The last newsletter I sent was actually the first. And what a result!
As well as providing a lucrative system angle, we also looked at why it pays to be wary of short-priced high class horses having their seasonal debut.
A classic case in point was Champion Hurdle runner up, Harchibald, who had his first run of the season on Sunday at Tipperary. Having opened at 1-4, the horse drifted to 2-7, then 1-3. This is normally a sign that a horse is ‘carrying condition’ (as mentioned last time, this is trainerspeak for ‘not fit’).
Sure enough, ‘Harchie’ was going best of all with a quarter mile to run, but found absolutely nothing when asked to make his effort. He finished fourth of five, and the aroma of burnt fingers could be sniffed across the Emerald Isle. There’ll be a good few more high profile, long odds-on defeats before October is through. You have been warned…!
Also, in the last newsletter, I started what is to be a regular feature in the letter: Tomorrow’s Qualifiers. This is where I give you an insight into the wonderful world of Trainer Track Stats.
And how!
On a never-to-be-repeated day, out of nine selections, eight were winners, including 10/1 and 12/1 horses. The only horse not to win was placed 3rd at 12/1, in the same race that we had the 4/1 winner!!
You’ll find tomorrow’s qualifiers at the bottom of this letter.
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SYSTEM ANGLE: GOING CHANGE WINNERS
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Its the time of year when Autumn starts to blow into Winter, and the wind and rain changes the going conditions almost daily. In short, its a tough time to be a punter. So, I sought to answer the question,
How can we use this inclement weather to our advantage?.
One of the things that struck me was,
What if a horse had previously won on today’s going, but was beaten last time out on markedly different ground?
Well, I put this to the test with my trusty Racing Systems Builder software (the same hugely impressive database I trawl to locate the TrainerTrackStats nuggets). I used my usual 14/1 or less condition, and also restricted it to novice races. This is what I learnt if today’s going was two or more types quicker or slower than last time out:
YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%
2001 20 69 28.99 3.17 4.59 7.69
2002 16 58 27.59 -5.40 -9.31 4.52
2003 16 39 41.03 38.00 97.44 43.29
2004 22 70 31.43 3.85 5.50 21.15
2005 16 55 29.09 0.95 1.73 6.21
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90 291 30.93 40.57 13.94 15.23
As you can see, there are some great opportunities to find value here…
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A JOKE…….
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Nothing to do with horse racing or winner finding but very
funny nonetheless!
A man walks into a dentists’ surgery, and says, You’ve got to help me, I think I’m a moth.
The dentist replies, You don’t need a dentist, you need a psychiatrist.
The man says, I know.
The dentist, somewhat bemused, says, So what are you doing here?!
Grinning, the man replies, The light was on!
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TOMORROW’S QUALIFIERS
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Exeter 2.10 Brochrua
Exeter 3.10 Boychuk
Exeter 4.40 Grave Doubts
Towces 3.00 Sexy Rexy (PRICE WARNING)
Note the (PRICE WARNING). This horse - like all qualifiers -
must be 14/1 or shorter to be a qualifier.
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REMINDER / NEXT LETTER…
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Well, that’s about all for this letter. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. Before I close, I’d like to take the opportunity to remind those of you
who have yet to subscribe that I now have a daily email subscription service for TrainerTrackStats, giving you all the following day’s selections the night before.
For more information, go to www.trainertrackstats.com/subscribe
Next newsletter will be in your inbox on or around 17th October.
Finally, if you have any comments / feedback on this letter, or anything you’d like to see in future,
please email your suggestions to enquiries@trainerflatstats.com
I’ll look forward to hearing from you!
Thanks for reading, and best regards
Matt Bisogno
Author, TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7
http://www.www.trainerflatstats.com
Matt Bisogno is a lifelong horseracing and betting enthusiast, and has published a number of statistical analyses of trainer patterns for horse racing betting purposes.
Tags: betting, betting systems, gambling, horse racing
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